Just one more game separates four teams from Super Bowl LV. MyBookie Head Oddsmaker David Strauss picks his favorites of the remaining contenders.
NFL Conference Championship
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Green Bay Packers -3.5
Over/Under: 52 (-115)
AFC Conference Championship
Buffalo Bills +3
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Over/Under 53.5 (-110)
No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5)
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers (10-8 ATS, 10-8 O/U) have won six straight games dating back to the regular season and seven of its last 10 games overall. The Bucs boast some impressive stats, finishing the regular season ranked second in passing and a stellar third in scoring (30.8 ppg) behind their 40-year-old QB. The Bucs closed out the regular season ranked sixth in total defense, first against the run, and eighth in points allowed (22.2 ppg).
While Tampa Bay has some fantastic statistics across the board and an offense and defense that both finished inside the top 10, I’ve got the Bucs at No. 4 in my conference championship power rankings for a reason. Each of Tampa Bay’s last four regular season wins came against teams with a losing record, so I’m not at all impressed. The Bucs got past Washington 31-23 in the wild card round, but again, I’m not dazzled – Tampa Bay allowed Washington to hand around all game even without starting QB Alex Smith.
I also was discouraged with last week’s 30-20 Divisional Round win over New Orleans. The game was tied 13 all at the half, although the Saints clearly outplayed the Bucs. Hell, the score was tied at 20 all heading into the fourth quarter. It felt like New Orleans lost this game more than Tampa Bay won it.
To show just how ineffective Tampa Bay’s offense was, just know that star wide receivers Mike Evans and Antonio Brown both finished with one reception. While the Bucs did record three interceptions of Drew Brees, two of those picks were clearly not because of outstanding defense. Sorry, not sorry, but Tampa Bay is fourth in my conference championship power rankings.
Buccaneers Betting Insights
- The Buccaneers, on average, score 7.7 more points per game this season (30.8) than the Packers allow (23.1).
- Tampa Bay is 8-0 overall when they score at least 30.8 points this season.
- When Green Bay allows opposing offenses to put 23.1 points or fewer on the scoreboard this year, they are 9-0 overall.
No. 3 Buffalo Bills (15-3)
The Bills (12-6 ATS, 11-6-1 O/U) enter the AFC Championship game as one of the trendiest picks remaining. Buffalo has won eight consecutive games and nine of its last 10 games overall while finishing the regular season ranked second in total offense, third in passing, and second in scoring (31.3 ppg).
Buffalo has a powerful offense and a blossoming quarterback in Josh Allen that seems to be growing more comfortable with each passing week.
As important, the Bills are playing defense at an improved level from what we saw out of them early on this season. Buffalo has limited the opposition to 17 points or less five times over its last eight games while allowing 10 points or less in two of those contests, including last weekend’s statement-making 17-3 win over Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
If the Bills play defense in the AFC Championship game as they did a week ago, Kansas City could be in big trouble! Buffalo gets my No. 3 spot in the conference championship power rankings.
Bills Betting Insights
- Buffalo has put together an 11-5 record against the spread this season.
- The Bills have averaged 8.7 more points this season (31.3) than the Chiefs have allowed (22.6).
- Buffalo is 6-0 overall and 6-0 against the spread when they score at least 31.3 points this season.
No. 2 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
The Chiefs (7-10 ATS, 8-9 O/U) hit the AFC Championship game having won nine of its last 10 games with its only loss coming against the Chargers in its meaningless regular season finale. Kansas City closed out the regular season ranked first in total offense, and first in passing – riding the arm of former MVP Patrick Mahomes.
I know the Chiefs didn’t look very good in their 22-17 divisional-round win over Cleveland last week even when Patrick Mahomes was on the field, but Kansas City just keeps finding ways to win and the Chiefs might have too many weapons for anyone to contain for the second straight postseason.
Kansas City might be known for its high-scoring offense, but the defending Super Bowl champs have limited three of their last six opponents to 17 points or less and shut down a Cleveland team last week that had just exploded for 48 points against Pittsburgh in the Divisional Round. Kansas City will almost surely need Mahomes to play this weekend if they want to get past Buffalo – t as it stands right now, he’s a full go.
Chiefs Betting Insights
- Kansas City has compiled a losing 7-9 record against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are just 5-8 ATS when playing as at least 3.0-point favorites.
- In games where Kansas City score at least 29.6 points this season, they are 8-1 overall and 5-4 against the spread.
No. 1 Green Bay Packers (14-3)
The Packers (11-6 ATS, 10-7 O/U) have won seven straight games and nine of their last 10 games overall. Green Bay closed out the regular season ranked fifth in total offense, ninth in passing, eighth in rushing, and first in scoring (31.8 ppg). Defensively, Green Bay ranks ninth overall.
The more I watch Green Bay, the more convinced I am they’re the pick to win Super Bowl LV. Green Bay’s 40-14 Week 16 home win over Tennessee, combined with last week’s overpowering 32-18 smackdown of Aaron Donald and the LA Rams, has me convinced that the Packers are the top team remaining in this year’s Super Bowl race.
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense has scored at least 32 points in three straight games and made the Ram’s top overall defense appear completely overmatched. Green Bay has scored at least 30 points in seven of its last eight games while putting 30 or more on the board a mind-boggling 13 times this season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Packers are absolutely surging. Green Bay has not given up more than 18 points in four straight games and five times in its last six games overall. Aaron Rodgers looks like a spry 25-year-old and has done more with less than any other quarterback in the league this season. Maybe it’s me, but as it stands right now, I don’t think anyone is getting past the Packers this postseason.
Packers Betting Insights
- The Packers have put an average of 31.8 points per game on the scoreboard this season, 9.6 more than the 22.2 the Buccaneers have surrendered in each contest.
- In games where Green Bay score at least 31.8 points this season, they are 8-0 overall and 8-0 against the spread.
For full NFL Postseason odds visit, MyBookie.ag/Sportsbook/NFL
SUPER BOWL – ODDS TO WIN | Super Bowl 55
Kansas City Chiefs +210
Green Bay Packers +200
Buffalo Bills +320
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +400
