“With the first pick in the draft, Team X selects…” At the start of nearly every NHL Entry Draft, you hear some variation of the aforementioned phrase from League Commissioner, Gary Bettman.
On Saturday afternoon, when the Devils hosted the Canadiens for a matinee game at Prudential Center, three players who had previously heard their names called by Commissioner Bettman in such a manner, squared off. Of course, we’re talking about New Jersey’s Jack Hughes (No. 1 overall in 2019) and Nico Hischier (No. 1 overall in 2017), and Montreal’s Juraj Slafkovsky (No. 1 overall in 2022). Hughes, Hischier, and Slafkovsky have played important roles for their respective organizations since being drafted first overall. (In fact, Hischier is currently the Devil’s Captain). And we’re not just talking about Saturday’s 4-3 Devils’ victory over the Canadiens; during which, Nico Hischier scored a critical go-ahead power-play goal – late in the third period – to fuel New Jersey’s come-from-behind win.
Aside from their teams’ reliance on them, Hughes and Slafkovsky and to a slightly lesser extent, Hischier, have something else in common – they all endured growing pains during their rookie seasons before blossoming into the players they are today. So, with that in mind, let’s examine the maturation process of not just this trio, but the last half-dozen first overall draft picks. Perhaps we’ll stumble upon a pattern of some sort that can be used to help ease the burden on future Number One selections.
As a matter of keeping things fair, we’ll only be considering what each player did during their first two seasons; this is because Slafkovsky is currently in the middle of his sophomore campaign. That also rules out Connor Bedard from participating in this exercise since this is his rookie year.
Alright, let’s get to it.
2022: Juraj Slafkovsky, LW, Montreal (GP-96, G-16, A-24, P-40, ATOI-15:16)
Montreal’s selection to start the 2022 Draft – by the way, the annual event was held in Montreal – was a bit of a surprise. In fact, many fans in attendance booed the announcement because they wanted the Canadiens to draft Shane Wright, who many thought was destined to go number one overall. Those fans have since warmed up to Slafkovsky and the Slovakian winger has begun to reward their patience.
After struggling to the tune of 10 points in 39 games (4G, 6A) Slafkovsky has taken a huge leap forward this year and will likely finish the season with somewhere between 18-22 goals. That would set him up nicely to grow into a 25-30 goal threat next season. After that, the sky’s the limit.
2021: Owen Power, D, Buffalo (GP-130, G-6, A-47, P-53, ATOI-23:17)
When the Sabres drafted Power, there were questions about his NHL readiness, which isn’t a wholly uncommon occurrence for number one overall selections. And after an eight-game cup of coffee during the 2021-22 campaign, Power used last season to put the League on notice that he was ready to rock’n’roll.
Unfortunately, the now 21-year-old defenseman has seen his play dip ever so slightly this season. He’s averaging 1:20 of ice time less than what he played last year and his production has seen a slight drop as well. Call it the “sophomore jinx” if you will, but there’s no denying that young defensemen have a more difficult time adjusting to the NHL than forwards.
2020: Alexis Lafrenière, LW, New York (GP-135, G-31, A-21, P-52, ATOI-13:57)
The Rangers were ecstatic when they won the lottery and received the chance to draft Lafrenière. And who wouldn’t have been happy? The kid put up numbers in Junior hockey that had some people mentioning him in the same breath as Sidney Crosby. Sadly, for the Blueshirts and their fans, Lafrenière has not lived up to the hype. But that’s not entirely his fault. The Rangers have made several coaching changes since Lafrenière was drafted. There was a worldwide pandemic that stunted his development at the onset of his career. And he’s bounced around the lineup more often than not.
Of course, had he simply produced – easier said than done – then he would have rendered those issues moot. And unlike how Slafkovsky and Hughes struggled in Year One before taking a step forward in Year Two, Lafrenière did not take that leap. Sure, he saw his goal total rise from 12 to 19, but that was a function of playing in more games since his shooting percentage dropped by .6%, while his goals-per-game and points-per-game stats barely changed.
It has taken Lafrenière until this year – his fourth in The League – to see any real development in his game.
2019: Jack Hughes, C, New Jersey (GP-117, G-18, A-34, P-52, ATOI-17:24)
Everybody knew Hughes was going Number One overall in his draft year. They knew it when he was only 15-years-old. Sure, some people thought there was a chance Kaapo Kakko could usurp Hughes’ hold on the number one spot, but they were ultimately proven wrong on Draft Day.
What people didn’t expect was for Hughes to struggle out of the gate. In 61 games, he only put up 21 points (7G, 14A). That was far below what people were expecting out of the young center. But he did take a leap forward in Year Two.
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the NHL only played a 56-game regular season and Hughes played in every single Devils’ game. His totals rose to 11 goals, 20 assists, and 31 points. But, more importantly, his average ice time rose from 15:52 to 19:04. He was starting to make an impact all over the ice, even if his stat sheet numbers didn’t always reflect that.
Now, in his fifth season, Hughes is firmly cemented as a superstar in The League, and the lessons that he learned during his first two years are a big reason why he’s been able to make that jump.
2018: Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo (GP-141, G-13, A-71, P-84, ATOI-20:23)
When you have the chance to draft a Number One defenseman, you take it. They don’t exactly grow on trees. Dahlin’s first two seasons may not have jumped off the page at you, but they showed he could really move the puck well and had solid vision all over the ice.
While the Sabres have not been that good of a team during Dahlin’s, their overall defense improved from his rookie year to his second and he was a big reason why. Again, young defensemen have a harder time and a steeper learning curve when they get to the NHL than the forwards. But Dahlin was able to minimize his struggles and has since blossomed into a top defenseman. He even finished eighth in the Norris voting during the 2022-23 season.
2017: Nico Hischier, C, New Jersey (GP-151, G-37, A-62, P-99, ATOI-17:08)
The Devils’ current Captain probably struggled the least out of anyone on this list during their rookie season. Hischier scored 20 goals and tallied 52 points in 82 games during his first year in The NHL. The amazing thing is, he didn’t come into The League with the type of fanfare that others on this list did.
Expectations were high for Hughes, Lafrenière, and Power. From the moment they were drafted, they were expected to be difference-makers. That wasn’t the case with Hischier. Many thought he would develop into a solid NHLer. But nobody thought he needed to come in and try to play the part of savior.
So, the fact that Hischier has developed into one of the top forwards in The League is a pleasant surprise. He’s essentially become a point-per-game player and is consistently in the Selke Trophy conversation.
CONCLUSION: The maturation of top draft picks is as much about their physical abilities as it is the situation they are drafted into. It is unreasonable to expect teenagers to be able to immediately compete against full-grown men, especially if they don’t have the correct supporting cast.
Something we have seen in the last year or two is NHL teams trying to bring top draft picks along slowly, for example, having them play fewer games at the start of the season while they get acclimated to life in The NHL. There’s no proof yet whether this approach will work any differently than throwing the kids right into the proverbial fire, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.
Getting back to Hughes, Hischier, and Slafkovsky, each followed a different path to The NHL and each has taken a different path to becoming the player they are today. The Devils and Canadiens are just glad they have these players on their sides, rather than trying to game plan against them.
