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Five Things to Look For As Training Camp Opens

Holdouts as far as the eye can see:

This is becoming more of an annual tradition, but the list of early camp holdouts (and hold-ins) is long, and it continues to grow. More than ever before, top-end players are rightfully going after more money to keep up with league averages. There also seems to be a push to ask for more guaranteed money. I envision a world, maybe as soon as the next CBA, where we start to see the NFL transition to an NBA-style formula of guaranteed contracts. Until then, the best way to get what you want is not to show up. 

More often than not, these things get done. This can be in the form of renegotiation, a contract extension, converting some of the contract to signing bonus money, or the player just decides it’s not worth skipping camp and getting fined anymore- eventually, the player shows up. If you recall, this was the case last year for the running backs. Saquon and Josh Jacobs both held out, and there was even some conversation that took place between all the league’s best RBs. All were available to their teams by week three. And Chiefs DT Chris Jones missed camp and only ended up missing one-week last year. Contract situations tend to favor the teams, who get what they want in the end. 

The list of notable names holding out this year is filled with some that we anticipated and some surprises. We knew CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk would make things interesting. But I don’t think anyone saw Trent Williams skipping town on the 49ers. Keep an eye on all of these names, because maybe this will be the year that someone actually gets traded during camp. I know 49ers GM John Lynch has to be losing sleep trying to figure out how he’s going to balance all these big contracts going forward, especially with Brock Purdy’s anticipated extension on the horizon… 

Hey Rookie- Welcome to the league:

The top six picks in the draft featured three quarterbacks and two wide receivers. Expand a little further, and the top 12 picks featured six QBs and three WRs. That’s a lot of offensive skill, and I’m excited to see all of these guys at some point. Early returns have been high on LSU WR Malik Nabers, who went to the Giants at pick six. It’s early, but Drake Maye has turned heads in Foxboro, it seems we’ll be debating Caleb Williams versus Jaden Daniels for decades to come. JJ McCarthy and Bo Nix should both have a good shot to start. 

But a lot of depth rookies went later in the first round, and even into the second round. Especially at WR. Those are the guys I’m looking out for. 49ers WR Ricky Persall started camp on PUP but should see a massive uptick in reps with Brandon Aiyuk not available. Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas didn’t get as much draft clout as his LSU teammate Nabers but could be every bit as impactful. If Bryce Young makes a leap this year, first-round pick Xavier Legette will be a major reason why. Keon Coleman is already making massive grabs in Buffalo, and Patrick Mahomes has had a fun time putting Xavier Worthy’s combine record speed to the test. 

The Return of the Injured Quarterbacks: 

A lot of injured QBs are back, and all of them have been cleared for full contact. They all have something to prove, in my opinion. 

We just watched Giants GM Joe Schoen try and aggressively trade up in the draft for a QB on Hard Knocks the other night. Instead, he opted to get Daniel Jones one last weapon in LSU WR Malik Nabers. No more excuses for Danny Dimes in East Rutherford.

Staying in New Jersey, Aaron Rodgers is back as well. The addition of Mike Williams, coupled with Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard, gives Rodgers his best group of pass catchers in years. Will all of this be enough for Aaron Rodgers to live up to the hype in his first full season with the Jets? Will he even finish the season for the Jets? 

Another early injury that had us wondering what could’ve been was Anthony Richardson’s week five AC joint sprain. He looked the part before the injury, with his legs and arm strength living up to the scouting reports. The Colts made a playoff push without him, could they make a push for the division WITH him? 

Joe Burrow is back, with a shaved head and blonde hair. The Bengals were in the midst of their usual rope-a-dope before his injury, starting to make a run to the playoffs after their annual slow start. The landscape has changed in Cincinnati, however, with Tee Higgins’ uncertain future playing on a franchise tag and the offseason losses of Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon. 

Hard not to root for Kirk Cousins. He’s had so much adversity thrown his direction in recent years, and he almost always comes out smelling like a rose. Plus, he’s just an all-around good guy. I’m looking forward to his future with the Falcons, who should have a shot to win the NFC South. 

It’s Hard to Get Back:

We’ve been spoiled over the years with dynasties like the Chiefs, Steelers, and Patriots. They’ve made something very difficult look easy: maintaining their position at the top. Between schedule changes and draft positioning, the NFL doesn’t make it easy for teams at the top the previous year to get back to where they were. 

Speaking of the Chiefs and Patriots, they’re on a small list of teams since 2010 to win the Super Bowl after losing in the AFC Championship game the previous season. The 2012 Ravens did this as well. 

The list is smaller in the NFC, where the NFC Championship game runner-up hasn’t gone on to win the Super Bowl the next season since the 1996 Green Bay Packers. That news doesn’t bode well for the Detroit Lions.  

But 49ers fans have the toughest reality staring them in the face. The previous year’s Super Bowl loser has only gone on to with the Super Bowl the next year on three occasions. It happened most recently with the 2019 Patriots, but it hadn’t happened since the 70s before that. In my opinion, that puts a microscope on all these training camp holdouts the 49ers are up against. 

The (AFC) North Remembers: 

The AFC North was by far the best division in football last year and has a shot to repeat the same status this year. They put three teams in the playoffs and the Bengals had a shot at making a run before Burrow’s injury. Each team has an intriguing storyline, which is to our benefit. Later in the season, the entire division will be appearing on the midseason playoff push edition of Hard Knocks

Cleveland had a monster defense last year, which made us wonder what things would be like with a competent offense. Nick Chubb is back and healthy, and Deshaun Watson is a full-go after returning from season-ending shoulder surgery. I think we’ll get a good idea this season if Watson can achieve his Houston Texans form. The Browns are doomed without Watson at his best, and this preseason will give us a solid glimpse of what we may be able to expect from him. 

Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in Pittsburgh, which is crazy to think about since he is officially the longest-tenured head coach in the league (2007). His hopes of returning to the league’s elite rests on the shoulders of either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. Two quarterbacks who have had their fair share of peaks and pits over the last two years alone. Who emerges from camp as QB1?

As mentioned before, things look a lot different for Burrow and the boys in Cincinnati. He’s one of the best in the business when healthy, but there was a lot of subtraction this offseason for the Bengals. I’ll be very curious to see if Zach Moss and Sheldon Rankins fill the big shoes of Joe Mixon and DJ Reader, respectively. Camp will tell us a lot here. 

The Ravens provided us with one of the most memorable choke jobs in recent memory last season. They squandered a Lamar Jackson MVP campaign with a home loss in the AFC Championship. The roster is strong and mostly healthy, but I’m still keeping an eye on the loss of linebacker Patrick Queen. This puts more pressure on Roquan Smith to perform at a high level. The Ravens defense has my attention going into training camp.  

-Michael “Zolo” Palazzolo, Tipped Balls Podcast

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